Home
Twins Geek Archive
Support Twins Geek
- Buy Baseball Prospectus 2004
Twins Geek Video
- Windows Media Player
- RealMedia Player
MORE TWINS STUFF
Star Tribune
Pioneer Press
Dickie Thon Twins Forum
Minnesota Twins Official Site
Aaron's Baseball Blog
Yard: The Blog
GameDay
Seth Speaks
Will Young's Twins Page
The Bad Twin
Three Up, Three Down
Nikii's Twins Page
Save The Twins
Twins Dugout
Fort Myers Fan Site
MINNESOTA SPORTS SITES
Gopher Hole
BASEBALL SITES
Baseball Prospectus
Baseball Primer's Clutch Hits
ESPN.com MLB
CBS Sportsline (MLB)
Sports Central (MLB)
TEAM FAN PAGES / WEBLOGS
General
Futility Infielder
Baseball Musings
Baseball News Blog
Boys of Summer
Mike's Baseball Rants
Dan Lewis's SportsBlog
Four Aces
Pitch Black Baseball (Negro Leagues)
Digressions on Baseball
At Home Plate
The Baseball Boys
Elysian Fields Quarterly
Rich's Weekend Beat
Julian's Baseball Blog
Sports Blotter
AL East
Curse of the Bambino (BOS)
Darn Sox
Pinstripes (NYY)
Bronx Banter (NYY, NYM)
Batters Box (TOR)
Blue Jay Way
Mugs' Thoughts (TOR)
Birds in the Belfry (BLT)
Orioles Hangout
AL Central
Cleveland Indians Report
TribeScribe(CLE)
TribeWatch(CLE)
Detroit Tiger Weblog
RobNeyer.com (KC)
Royals Zone
White Sox Interactive
AL West
The Newberg Report (TEX)
Elephants in Oakland
Purgatory (ANA)
NL East
Broad and Pattison (PHI)
View from the 700 Level (PHI)
Braves Journal
Braves Report
Braves Buzz
Victory Lap (MON)
Shoot the Messenger (MON)
Bronx Banter (NYY, NYM)
Eddie Kranepool Soc. (NYM)
Fish or Cut Bait (FLA)
NL Central
Cub Rants
The Cub Reporter
Bryan's Baseball Banter (CHC)
Astros Daily
Bleed Cardinal Red
America's Pastime (STL)
Brewer Fan
Al's Ramblings (MIL)
Cincinnati Reds Weblog
NL West
Dodger Place
Dodger Thoughts
Ducksnorts (SD)
Denver Baseball Observer
Only Baseball Matters (SFG)
ROTO RESOURCES
RotoJunkie's Bull Pen
Rotoworld
Rotowire
Diamond Science
USE UNUSED TICKETS
Tix for Tots
Bonnes.com
Contact the TwinsGeek |
Runs Created
One of the more frustrating aspects of a lot of the statistical baseball sites that I like to read is that they reference work that is out of print. A prime example is "Runs Created", a statistic created and published by Bill James in the 80's in his Baseball Abstracts. I plan on buying them used sometime, but I haven't yet and I've never really found a great "Runs Created" explanation. Fortunately, Bill James Historical Baseball Abstract from 1986 was available at the Hennepin County Library and I was able to get my hands on it last Thursday night. He talks quite a bit about Runs Created and I thought I would summarize it and evaluate the Twins players with it.
First the simplest formula for Runs Created (RC):
RC = (Hits + Walks) * TotalBases
AtBats + Walks
You may notice that the formula has similar roots to OPS* in that it seems to be concentrating on OBP (H+W/AB+W) and slugging percentage (TB/AB). He doesn't talk about the formula's origin or give a conceptual reason why it works; he just claims that it is very accurate for predicting the runs created by major league teams. So let's test that for this year:
So this mysterious formula (published almost 20 years ago) accurately predicts the runs that the American League would score, based solely on at-bats, walks, hits and total bases, within .8%. And for each team within 6%. Cool, huh?
You might wonder how this is possible, since the formula doesn't include stolen bases or bunts or all those things that are supposed to be so important to a baseball game, and the answer is: I don't know. That may be the most amazing conclusion drawn from this formula, and I suspect it's flawed, but I haven't given it sufficient thought yet. I should also mention that I'm only giving the simplest formula, and James has many, many more that are even more precise and vary depending on the era and the stats available.
So, if the formula predicts how many runs the Twins would score so far this year (within 3%), we should be able to use the same formula to determine roughly how many runs each Twins positional player is responsible for:
I should caution that this is not saying that Torii Huner has (in reality) been directly responsible for 83 runs this year. But it is saying that if Hunter was injured for the year and the Twins just lost his at-bats, you could expect the Twins would have scored 83 fewer runs.
BTW, it's no surprise who is at the top of the list, but Jones being 2nd surprised me a little and Guzman being above Mientkiewicz really surprised me. I think this is mostly a factor of Guzman and Jones getting more at-bats at the top of the order.
Next, we can (almost) figure out how many outs each player has made this season, so we can determine how many runs they make per out. (I say "almost", because a double play should count as two outs, and I haven't found out how many each Twin has hit into. I'll assume it's not a huge amount and continue.) The outs can be figured out by adding
- how many outs they made in at-bats (AB-H) +
- caught stealing +
- sacrifice flies +
- sacrifice bunts.
Finally, since there are generally 27 outs in a game, we can figure out how many runs each player would create in an average game.
Remember the Bugs Bunny cartoon where the announcer says "Playing first base - Bugs Bunny. At second base - Bugs Bunny," etc.? Well, using this method we can find out how many runs a lineup full or Torii Hunters would score. They would average about 7.5 runs per game. And probably be alll over the field catching balls just like Bugs was.
(Incidentally, the Twins are averaging 5.07 runs/game this year).
Fun, huh? If you're a reular reader, you may want to bookmark this column, becaue I expect that Runs Created will become something I'll work with often, similar to my handy-dandy new favorite toy.
Twins Takes
A few days ago, TwinsGeek published an organizational overview of catchers written by Doug Hennessee. I meant to comment on a couple of its points, but forgot, so I'd like to go back to it:
- Doug suggests that Tom Prince might not return next year, since his option is held by the Twins at $450,000. I think Tom Prince probably will return next year. With his $50,000 buyout plus the $200,000 minimum salary they would have to pay another catcher, they only save $200,000 by not renewing, and that's hardly worth the risk of an unknown commodity.
Also, Prince is right-handed and Twins brass may feel that he compliments the left-handed A.J. Pierzynski well. This isn't really true for two reasons. First, AJ has become MUCH better against left-handers than he was last year (702 OPS in 2002 vs 344!! OPS in 2001). The second reason, of course, is that Prince is equally inept from each side of the plate (616 career OPS), though he's doing better this year.
- I think he's dead on about Matt LeCroy almost never seeing time at catcher next year. He may very well end up as DH if the Twins decide they can't afford Ortiz. Ortiz may be the biggest question mark for next year.
- Finally, I suspect he's right about the Twins attempting to sign Pierzynski to a long term deal this offseason. Whether or not that's a good idea depends on how much Pierzynski and his agent want. If they are asking for a four year deal, or if they are asking for market value, the Twins might as well just let him go to arbitration for the next three years. If, on the other hand, he's willing to sacrifice a million or two a year for a guaranteed three year contract, it would make sense.
- Finally, I want to thank Doug once again for the analysis. When trying to figure out the choices this organization will make over the next couple years, this kind of background is invaluable.
Other Stuff
- The Twins face the Orioles tonight. Last week, I asked for impressions from Cleveland fans regarding Mike Hargrove. The most succinct response I got that Minnesota Sports fans was:
In a (couple of) words...Dennis Green.
Great regular season coach, not good on post-season. Actually, the biggest
criticism is that he is too much of a "by-the-book" type of manager and
doesnot do enough on instinct or hunches.
Tom
I think I disagree with that a little. Sure Minnesotans thought Green personally failed in the playoffs. But it wasn't because Green was "by-the-book". It was because Green:
- Became ultra-conservative in big games in almost every facet (game plan, play calling, etc.)
- Made bone-headed tactical decisions during big games - completely not "by the book".
- Refused to ever accept any accountability for losses in big games.
As a Vikings fan, I can certainly relate to Tribe fans who were frustrated their team never won the big one. And they certainly paid more attention than I to their team's wins/losses. But I still think that the blame for the Tribe never winning the championship that the team and city deserved falls squarely on the shoulders of John Hart, who never came through with a Schilling or RJ when he easily could have.
- I've been telling members of the Twins Geek community that if they like this site, to please tell their friends about it. But would also like to encourage you if your friends aren't Twins fans, to tell them about one of the weblogs for their favorite team. Some of the ones listed on the left are just excellent. I stumbled across The Futility Infielder and Only Baseball Matters again yesterday for the first time in a long time, and I'm kicking myself for not checking them more often.
--------------------------
* OPS = OBP+SLG or On-Base Percentage + Slugging Percentage. It is used to represent a player’s production as a hitter. For a defensive position, such as middle infielder, an OPS of 750-800 would be pretty good. For a hitting position, like first base, an OPS of 900 would be about what you want.
On-Base Percentage refers to the percentage of times a player gets on base via a hit or a walk. It differs from Batting Average because walks are counted just like singles.
Slugging Percentage measures a player’s power and is equal to Total Bases divided by number of At-Bats. It differs from Batting Average in that a double counts as two singles.
Thank you for stopping by TwinsGeek.com. The site is updated with a new column almost every weekday. If you can't wait until tomorrow, please feel free to:
- Read previous articles from the archive
- Provide feedback using the button below, or debate your thoughts with others at the DTFC Twins Forum.
- Take a look at some of the other fan sites using the links on the left
- TELL YOUR FRIENDS ABOUT TWINSGEEK! There's a lot of folks here, but the more the merrier. If you want to share in the bewilderment of how many Twins Geeks there are, you can check out the stats by clicking on this button:
Again, thank you for your attention today. I hope you can stop by again tomorrow.
Sincerely,
John
|
More Twins Geek |
On Radio and Lineups
(03/03/2005)
Complete Column | A Cold Omaha
Is a professional sports team that important to a city? And can you put a monetary value on that importance? (03/02/2005)
Complete Column | Baseball Tonight (Part I)
God bless you Peter. (03/01/2005)
Complete Column | Get To Know: The First Basemen
Half the fun of being a Twins fan is watching a talented kid like this grow and improve. (02/28/2005)
Complete Column | Get To Know: Boof Bonser
In addition, he hit the sportswriters, the new public address announcer, the bull mascot - twice. (02/25/2005)
Complete Column | Short Notes
In case you were wondering, that "offensive potential" included hitting .253 with a 658 OPS as a 26-year-old . (02/24/2005)
Complete Column | Phoning It In: The Trip: Day 1
C'mon Jose! Little effort here! (02/22/2005)
Complete Column | Spring
I’ll admit it - I’m selfish about my heavensents. Seasoned sour cream. The Current. Pentel drafting pencils. Las Vegas. And Joe Mauer playing baseball. (02/19/2005)
Complete Column | Get To Know: The Third Basemen
Two contending teams are planning to start relatively highly touted prospects that combine for only 76 games of major league experience at third base. One of those teams is the Minnesota Twins. (02/18/2005)
Complete Column | Looking Ahead to 2007
I'll listen to arguments about this, but I can't figure out the incentive to have all those contracts expire because of contraction. (02/17/2005)
Complete Column |
Twins Player News |
Hey, check out what Rotowire set up for us Twins Geeks. It shows the latest news on all our favorite Twins players and prospects.
Thanks, Rotowire! |
|
| |